Growth in India is firming up and projected to accelerate to 7.3% in the 2018-19 fiscal and 7.5% in the next two years, the World Bank said Sunday. The global lender said that the Indian economy appears to have recovered from the temporary disruptions caused by demonetization and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). However, domestic risks and a less benign external environment impact the macro-economic outlook, it said.
Growth reached 6.7% in fiscal year 2017/18, with a significant acceleration in recent months, it said. “Prompted by the adoption of the ‘Goods and Services Tax’ (GST) and the recapitalisation of banks, growth in India is firming up and it is projected to accelerate further,” the World bank said in its latest report on South Asia. Growth in India, it said, is expected to rise to 7.3% in fiscal year 2018/19, and to 7.5% in the following two years, with stronger private spending and export growth as the key drivers.
On the production side, the turnaround in the second half was led by manufacturing (that grew at 8.8% versus 2.7% in the first half). Agriculture growth improved, and services growth held steady at 7.7%, the report said.On the demand side, the pick-up in growth was reflected in a sharp acceleration in gross fixed capital formation to 11.7% in the second half, from 3.4% in the first. Consumption, growing at seven% in the second half, remained the major driver of growth, the report said.
Observing that the external situation has become less favourable and the current account balance has deteriorated, the Bank said that a worsening trade deficit has led the current account deficit to widen — on the back of a strong import demand, higher oil prices and exchange rate depreciation — from a benign 0.7% of the GDP in fiscal year 2016/17 to 1.9% in fiscal year 2017/18. External headwinds – monetary policy ‘normalisation‘ in the US coupled with recent stress in some Emerging Market and Developing Economies have triggered portfolio outflows from April 2018 onwards, the report said.
It said that as a result, the nominal exchange rate depreciated by about 12% from January to September 2018, and foreign reserves declined by over 5% since March, while remaining comfortable at about nine months of imports. Of the view that India faces continued internal and external risks, the World Bank said that high oil prices and an uncertain global trade environment may pose challenges for the current account.
“A widening trade deficit is likely to lead to a current account deficit of around 2.6% of the GDP in fiscal year 2018/19, and tighter global financing conditions will put added emphasis on India’s ability to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI),” it said. Fiscal consolidation is expected to resume in fiscal year 2018/19, but slippages could happen on both the revenue side (as the GST is still stabilising) and the expenditure side (ahead of state and federal elections), it said. “Elevated oil prices, a recent hike in agricultural support prices and further exchange rate depreciation could keep the inflation outlook challenging, possibly resulting in further monetary policy actions,” the report added.
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